U.S. President Donald Trump launched the nation into yet another war in the Middle East over the weekend. An estimated 787 people in Iran have been killed by U.S. and Israeli military strikes over the past five days, including 165 children and staff killed in a strike on an all-girls primary school that the United Nations says violates international humanitarian law.
Beyond the grave human toll of the violence, people around the world are already feeling the effects on their cost of living. It’s no surprise to see global oil prices begin to climb toward the inevitable pain at the pump, but transportation fuels are not the only rising costs to be paid. Natural gas consumers will also feel the pain as prices rise, with Trump’s coal policy only adding to the cost of electricity in the U.S.
It’s war, and energy costs have nowhere to go but up
Trump’s unilateral decision to launch a full-scale attack on Iran sent oil and natural gas prices surging. “Oil prices closed Monday nearly 9 percent higher than where trading started last Friday,” Heatmap News reported. “Natural gas prices, meanwhile, spiked by 5 percent in the U.S. and 45 percent in Europe after Qatar announced a halt to shipments of liquified natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iranian strikes on oil and gas targets in Qatar and other neighboring states caused much of the alarm. Equally concerning is Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a global shipping lane that sees 20 percent of the world’s oil in transit, with Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia on the other.
Iran cannot formally close the strait by simple pronouncement. However, ships are avoiding the area following a stark warning from Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior advisor to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who said that Iran will “set ablaze any ship attempting to cross.”
Electricity costs and the coal factor
The U.S. natural gas market has been impacted to a lesser extent than Europe. But any upward pressure on prices will eventually ripple into the cost of electricity generation and the price of natural gas used in the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors. About 43 percent of the nation’s electricity is generated by natural gas power plants.
The potential impact on price is particularly concerning to U.S. households and businesses that are already paying higher power bills given the data center construction boom and expensive grid upgrades underway across the country. Despite Trump’s promises to cut costs, average household electricity prices rose by 12 percent in the U.S. last year alone.
Adding to the upward price pressure is Trump’s “energy dominance” policy that favors coal power plants while repressing wind and solar growth. Aside from holding back progress on decarbonization, the support for coal runs contrary to the energy technology scenario of today. Wind and solar power are now widely recognized as the quickest and most economical way to introduce more kilowatts into the nation’s electricity profile, especially in the case of solar.
Instead of supporting these affordable, sustainable domestic energy resources, Trump directed Energy Secretary Chris Wright to issue a series of “emergency” orders aimed at keeping coal plants open past their scheduled retirements, leaving ratepayers to foot the bill.
“Ratepayer costs could exceed $3 billion per year if DOE mandates that the large fossil power plants scheduled to retire between now and the end of 2028 remain open,” the firm Grid Strategies found in a 2025 analysis commissioned by four environmental organizations.
Ratepayers fight back
One particularly egregious example of the impact on ratepayers is the J.H. Campbell power plant in West Olive, Michigan. The plant’s owner, Consumers Energy, spent years preparing to shut down the aging facility built in the 1960s. The meticulous process included engaging more economical resources like gas, wind and solar to replace Campbell’s 1,450-megawatt capacity. Accordingly, Consumers Energy expected the shutdown scheduled for May 31 of last year to save ratepayers $650 million through 2040.
However, just weeks before the Campbell plant was scheduled to shut down, Wright issued the first in a series of 90-day emergency orders that forced it to keep running until at least May of this year. Instead of saving money, the first 90-day order alone cost Consumers Energy $135 million, a sum it expects to recover from ratepayers in Michigan and 10 other states.
Wright’s orders have not gone unchallenged. Last month, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel requested a hearing with the Department of Energy about the Campbell plant, the latest step in her efforts to lift the so-called emergency orders.
“DOE has not been able to show the actual emergency it’s using to justify the continued operation of the J.H. Campbell Plant,” her office noted in a press statement.
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser made the same argument in January in an effort to lift a similar emergency order that forced a coal power plant in his state to remain open.
“There is no evidence of an energy emergency that would require keeping Craig Unit 1 open,” Weiser said of the 427-megawatt coal unit that has been in operation for more than 45 years. “The Energy Department’s illegal order will result in millions of dollars of unnecessary costs.”
Making the case for wind and solar power
Trump’s attempt to prop up the U.S. coal industry has already imposed substantial new costs on energy consumers across the country. His war in Iran will only add more pain.
Somewhat ironically, the war has made the case for renewables stronger than ever by exposing the vulnerability of the domestic natural gas market to global events. Unlike previous U.S. wars in the Middle East, Trump’s attack on Iran is happening when wind and solar are technologically advanced and competitive with fossil fuels.
The numbers don’t lie. Wind, solar and energy storage have dominated new generating capacity in the U.S. in recent years, a trend that continues despite Trump’s fossil-friendly energy policy.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency anticipates that new wind and solar farms will contribute 65 percent of the utility-scale capacity additions planned for 2026, with energy storage adding another 28 percent. That leaves just 7 percent to split between new fossil energy power plants, along with nuclear and other resources.
If a national energy “emergency” actually exists, the appropriate response is clear: Ramp up federal support for domestic energy resources that have a proven track record of rapid construction timelines along with affordability and reliability. If Trump truly believes that coal is the answer, perhaps he should find another line of work.
Image credits: DOW Photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist James Mullen, Avash Media, David Geitgey and U.S. Navy via Flickr and Wikimedia Commons
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