Study: Enormous Gains to Be Had From Sustainable Urban Transport

Carbon dioxide emissions from urban transportation could be reduced by 40 percent by 2050 – eliminating an estimated 1,700 megatons of CO2 emissions per year – by expanding public transportation, cycling and walking in cities, according a report from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) and the University of California, Davis. There's much more to be gained, however.

At a time when public services are being cut, expanding public transportation, cycling and walking in cities could save over $100 trillion in cumulative public and private spending. In addition, an estimated 1.4 million early deaths per year could be avoided by 2050 “if governments require the strongest vehicle pollution controls and ultra-low sulfur fuels," according to a related analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

Greening urban transportation

Launched in advance of the U.N. Climate Summit in New York City on Sept. 22, the report – A Global High Shift Scenario – highlights that the findings are relevant to three concurrent policy issues societies and leaders worldwide are grappling with: how best to promote and invest in climate change action; how to advance equitable, environmentally sustainable economic and social development; and how to cope with unprecedented urbanization.

According to the report's producers, the study is the first to investigate “how major changes in transport infrastructure and transit system investments worldwide would affect urban passenger transport emissions as well as mobility by different income groups.”

ITDP founder and Managing Director Michael Replogle noted that, driven by rapid growth in the use of cars, transportation has been the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions worldwide.

Transportation in urban areas accounted for about 2,300 megatons of CO2 in 2010 – nearly 25 percent of carbon emissions from the transportation sector overall. With rapid urbanization and an ongoing growth in the use of fossil-fueled vehicles, it's forecast that CO2 emissions from transportation will nearly double by 2050 “absent changes in investments and policy.” CO2 emissions increases from urban transportation will be fastest in the world's rapidly industrializing countries, such as China, India and Brazil, which have been struggling to cope with the rapid urbanization for decades.

Expanding investments, infrastructure and programs that promote public mass transit, cycling and walking would be a direct means of addressing the impacts of rising CO2 pollution from urban transport, according to the ITDP-UC Davis report.

Elaborating, Lew Fulton, report co-author and co-director of the NextSTEPS Program at the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis, stated:

“The analysis shows that getting away from car-centric development will cut urban CO2 dramatically and also reduce costs, especially in rapidly expanding economies,” added “It is also critical to reduce the energy use and carbon emissions of all vehicles.”

"Business as usual" vs. "High-Shift" scenario analysis

For the study, CO2 emissions in 2050 were calculated for two scenarios: a “business-as-usual” and a “High Shift” scenario. In the second, “governments significantly increased rail and clean bus transport, especially bus rapid transit (BRT), and helped urban areas provide infrastructure to ensure safe walking, bicycling and other active forms of transportation,” the report authors explain. The research team's scenario analyses also included shifting investments “away from road construction, parking garages and other ways that encourage car ownership.”

In addition to a sharp, steep drop in urban transportation CO2 emissions, the net financial impact would yield “enormous savings” in public- and private-sector investment over the next 35 years, ITDP and UC Davis highlight.

“A Global High Shift Scenario” was released at the U.N. Habitat III Preparatory Meeting in New York on Sept. 17 in advance of U.N. Secretary General Ban ki-Moon's global climate summit. Aiming to catalyze stronger actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change on the part of governments and businesses worldwide, the Secretary-General is calling on world leaders to make strong and definitive voluntary commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That includes new efforts to promote sustainable transportation.

“This timely study is a significant contribution to the evidence base showing that public transport should play central role in visions for the city of tomorrow” Alain Flausch, secretary general of the International Association of Public Transport, and member of U.N. Secretary General’s Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport, commented.

*Images credit: ITDP, UC Davis, "A Global High-Shift Scenario"